[Squishy] Shifting Dem primaries

[Jonathan Jaffe]

Of course they're shifting. The primaries haven't even started. However,
the latest development I find particularly pleasing. The USA Today reports
[1] that Clark has, in less than a month, vaulted to the second place
position in them minds of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters:

                Dec 11-14            Jan 2-5
Dean              31%                  24%
Clark              10%                  20%


I attribute this to two things. First, the desperate attacks by the other
followers are having an effect upon Dean's image with voters. While I
think it's a shame, I understand it's part of the political game. Attacks
work in almost all cases. However, they are far more effective when they
are lobbed between no more than two candidates. When there are more, the
shards that fly are no longer there to be picked up by just one candidate.
They are divided, leaving the leader still ahead, only by a smaller
margin. But should someone stay out of the fray, he can be the sole
collector of those shards, and that is the second phenomenon, Clark is
staying out of attacks and benefiting by others playing with mud.

By remaining above the attacks, Clark has very effectively let the others
do the work while he's reaped the benefits. Personally, I don't think it
natural to Clark to go on the attack, so it may not have been an conscious
strategy, but it works all the same. This leads me to the next issue with
Clark, his political immaturity.

People have made the point that Clark's lack of political experience
leaves him thin-skinned, unable to compete in national politics. I might
agree if I it weren't for three things. First, my new governor. He made a
point of not attacking Davis, trying to stay above the mudslinging. That
in itself had a strong appeal to Californians, benefiting him
tremendously. Second, if Clark wins the primary without lobbing turds, as
it increasingly seems he might do, he will have emerged almost 100% clean.
That is a fantastic way to start a head-on fight with Bush, since Bush
came in on the character issue and still plans on playing that. He can no
longer do that against Clark.

Finally, once Clark wins the primaries he'll have all of the money and
strategy of the DNC, as well. He'll most likely play the clean man while
others will do the slinging on his behalf, just like Bush and the RNC did
in 2000. And not to mention, Clark will absolutely destroy Bush in any
national debate. I think Clark is truly the most electable of the Dems,
and a good national leader to boot. My hope is his momentum continues,
because I see him as the best chance to bring our country back on track.

Jonathan

1 -
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-01-06-bush-poll-usat_x.htm